ComCat M7.0 (nc75095651), Point Source, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6 Results

Table Of Contents

• Probabilities Summary Table
• Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution
• Trigger Rupture Fault Map
• Fault Distances To Triggers
• Individual Simulated Catalog Maps
• ComCat Data Comparisons
  • ComCat Magnitude-Number Distributions
  • ComCat Magnitude-Time Functions
  • ComCat Time-Dependent Mc
  • ComCat Cumulative Number Vs Time
  • ComCat Cumulative Number Simulation Percentiles
  • ComCat Probability Spatial Distribution
  • ComCat Mean Expectation Spatial Distribution
  • ComCat Depth Distribution
• Section Participation
  • Section Participation Plots
  • Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table
  • M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥8 Parent Sections Table
• Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions
• Gridded Nucleation
• JSON Input File

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude Number Distribution

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10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 100000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 10 yr Probability (thin red line): 10 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 10 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 100000 catalogs

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 100000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 1 yr Probability (thin red line): 1 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 100000 catalogs

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 100000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 1 mo Probability (thin red line): 1 month probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 mo Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 100000 catalogs

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 100000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 1 wk Probability (thin red line): 1 week probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 wk Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 100000 catalogs

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 100000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 1 d Probability (thin red line): 1 day probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 d Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 100000 catalogs

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 100000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 1 hr Probability (thin red line): 1 hour probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 hr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 100000 catalogs

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Fault Distances To Triggers

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Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Duration	p0.0 %-ile	p25.0 %-ile	p50.0 %-ile	p75.0 %-ile	p90.0 %-ile	p95.0 %-ile	p97.5 %-ile	p98.0 %-ile	p99.0 %-ile	p99.5 %-ile	p99.9 %-ile	p99.999 %-ile
1 Week
1 Month
1 Year
10 Year

ComCat Data Comparisons

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These plots compare simulated sequences with data from ComCat. All plots only consider events with hypocenters inside the ComCat region defined in the JSON input file.

Last updated at 2024/12/06 05:05:43 UTC, 10.4 hours after the simulation start time.

Total matching ComCat events found: 59

ComCat Magnitude-Number Distributions

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Incremental MND	Cumulative MND

ComCat Magnitude-Time Functions

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These plots show the show the magnitude versus time probability function since simulation start. Observed event data lie on top, with those input to the simulation plotted as magenta circles and those that occurred after the simulation start time as cyan circles. Time is relative to the mainshock (M7, nc75095651, plotted as a brown circle). Probabilities are only shown above the minimum simulated magnitude, M=2.5.

ComCat Time-Dependent Mc

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The following plots compare simulation results with ComCat data above a magnitude threshold. Plots labeled as M≥Mc(t) use the time-dependent magnitude of completeness (Mc) defined in Helmstetter et al. (2006), which is plotted below. In the case of multiple M≥5 ruptures, either as input to the simulation or in the comparison data, the maximum calculated time-dependent Mc is used. This time-dependent Mc function is plotted below.

ComCat Cumulative Number Vs Time

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M≥Mc(t)	M≥3.4	M≥4	M≥5	M≥6

ComCat Cumulative Number Simulation Percentiles

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ComCat Probability Spatial Distribution

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Note: maps labeled 'Forecast' are for a duration that extends into the future, only forecasted values are plotted (ComCat data omitted)

	Current (10.4 Hour)	Forecast: 1 Day	Forecast: 1 Week	Forecast: 1 Month	Forecast: 1 Year
M≥Mc(t)
	Prob: 99.94%, Actual: 31	Prob: 99.99%	Prob: 100.00%	Prob: 100.00%	Prob: 100.00%
M≥3.4
	Prob: 99.91%, Actual: 20	Prob: 99.95%	Prob: 99.98%	Prob: 99.98%	Prob: 99.99%
M≥4
	Prob: 98.13%, Actual: 6	Prob: 98.64%	Prob: 99.24%	Prob: 99.47%	Prob: 99.64%
M≥5
	Prob: 67.06%, Actual: 0	Prob: 71.22%	Prob: 78.16%	Prob: 81.68%	Prob: 85.76%
M≥6
	Prob: 4.17%, Actual: 0	Prob: 5.03%	Prob: 7.05%	Prob: 8.54%	Prob: 11.08%
M≥7
	Prob: 0.22%, Actual: 0	Prob: 0.27%	Prob: 0.38%	Prob: 0.48%	Prob: 0.68%
M≥8
	Prob: 0.00%, Actual: 0	Prob: 0.00%	Prob: 0.00%	Prob: 0.01%	Prob: 0.01%

ComCat Mean Expectation Spatial Distribution

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Note: maps labeled 'Forecast' are for a duration that extends into the future, only forecasted values are plotted (ComCat data omitted)

	Current (10.4 Hour)	Forecast: 1 Day	Forecast: 1 Week	Forecast: 1 Month	Forecast: 1 Year
M≥Mc(t)
	Mean: 132.187, Actual: 31	Mean: 265.530	Mean: 694.248	Mean: 1026.620	Mean: 1613.922
M≥3.4
	Mean: 105.791, Actual: 20	Mean: 128.430	Mean: 183.061	Mean: 225.433	Mean: 300.279
M≥4
	Mean: 26.425, Actual: 6	Mean: 32.080	Mean: 45.735	Mean: 56.328	Mean: 75.040
M≥5
	Mean: 2.411, Actual: 0	Mean: 2.929	Mean: 4.180	Mean: 5.158	Mean: 6.879
M≥6
	Mean: 0.046, Actual: 0	Mean: 0.057	Mean: 0.084	Mean: 0.106	Mean: 0.147
M≥7
	Mean: 2.20E-3, Actual: 0	Mean: 2.74E-3	Mean: 3.90E-3	Mean: 4.97E-3	Mean: 6.98E-3
M≥8
	Mean: 3.00E-5, Actual: 0	Mean: 3.00E-5	Mean: 3.00E-5	Mean: 5.00E-5	Mean: 7.00E-5

ComCat Depth Distribution

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M≥Mc(t)	M≥3.4	M≥4	M≥5	M≥6	M≥7	M≥8

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag	1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.
M≥6.5
M≥7
M≥7.5
M≥8

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 87 with matching ruptures shown

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 71 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 50 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 25 with matching ruptures shown

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 18 with matching ruptures shown

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week	1 Month	1 Year	10 Year

Gridded Nucleation

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Min Mag	Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5
M≥5
M≥6
M≥7

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 100000,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1733424262110,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 1733457263256,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "ComCat M7.0 (nc75095651), Point Source, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "outputs",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "triggerRuptures": [
    {
      "occurrenceTimeMillis": 1733424261110,
      "comcatEventID": "nc75095651",
      "mag": 7.0,
      "latitude": 40.374,
      "longitude": -125.021666666667,
      "depth": 10.0
    }
  ],
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.29,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_comcat_event_config_builder.sh --output-dir outputs/ --event-id nc75095651 --num-simulations 100000 --days-before 7 --etas-k-cov 1.5 --finite-surf-shakemap --finite-surf-shakemap-min-mag 5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --duration-years 10 --binary-output",
  "configTime": 1733457263256,
  "comcatMetadata": {
    "region": {
      "centerLatitude": 40.374,
      "centerLongitude": -125.021666666667,
      "radius": 40.73802778041126
    },
    "eventID": "nc75095651",
    "minDepth": -10.0,
    "maxDepth": 24.0,
    "minMag": 2.5,
    "startTime": 1732819461110,
    "endTime": 1733424261110
  }
}